土壤有机碳(SOC)、土壤无机碳(SIC)和土壤碳氮比(C/N)是土壤的重要化学性质,研究不同放牧策略对土壤化学性质的影响,对于维持草原生态系统可持续发展有重要意义。以锡林郭勒草原为例,分析不同放牧策略对土壤化学性质的影响,取锡林郭勒草原某指定区域不同放牧策略下的土壤化学性质数据,利用主成分分析中的因子分析法判断土壤各化学性质对环境影响的响应,得出土壤有机碳、土壤无机碳和土壤碳氮比受环境影响较大的结论。采用时间序列方法中的ARIMA模型(整合移动平均自回归模型),预测放牧区的有机碳、无机碳、全氮含量,给出相应的预测模型,不同放牧策略对土壤有机碳含量影响的预测模型为ARIMA(2,0,0),对土壤无机碳含量影响的预测模型为ARIMA(2,1,1),对土壤碳氮比影响的预测模型为ARIMA(3,0,0)。
Abstract
Soil organic carbon (SOC),soil inorganic carbon (SIC) and soil carbon and nitrogen ratio (C/N) are important chemical properties of soil,and the study about the effects of different grazing strategies on soil chemical properties has a significant impact on maintaining the sustainable development of grassland ecosystems.To explore the effects of different grazing strategies on soil chemistry properties,this study investigated a sample of soil chemical property data under different grazing strategies in a designated area of Xilin Gol Grassland,in order to determine the impact of different soil chemical properties on the environment by using the factor analysis method in principal component analysis.The results show that the ratio of soil organic carbon,soil inorganic carbon and soil carbon nitrogen is greatly affected by the environment.In fact,the ARIMA model (integrated moving average autoregressive model)in the time series method is adopted in this paper to predict the contents of organic carbon,inorganic carbon and total nitrogen in grazing areas,and corresponding prediction models are given.The prediction model of the effects of different grazing strategies on soil organic carbon content is ARIMA (2,0,0),the prediction model of soil inorganic carbon content is ARIMA(2,1,1),and the prediction model of soil carbon-nitrogen ratio is ARIMA(3,0,0).
关键词
土壤化学性质 /
可持续发展 /
主成分分析法 /
ARIMA模型
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Key words
soil chemical property /
sustainable development /
principal component analysis /
ARIMA model
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中图分类号：
O29
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脚注
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基金
山东省自然科学基金(ZR2020MA049);国家自然科学基金(11801293)
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